Tuesday, February 24, 2009

MWC Basketball Race

I've been fiddling around trying to figure how BYU can win the MWC regular season title while keeping Utah and everyone else out of it. Here are the standings and games each team has left:

Utah, 10-2, UNLV, @BYU, @UNM, TCU
BYU, 8-4, @SDSU, Utah, @Wyo, AFA
UNM, 8-4, TCU, @CSU, Utah, @Wyo
UNLV, 8-5, @Utah, AFA, @SDSU

Before we get to BYU, here are some thoughts: The coolest scenario (besides BYU winning) would be if all five teams finished with an 11-5 record...which could very well happen. Actually, if BYU loses only game and Utah loses all but one game (both very viable scenarios) and the other three teams win the games they should, then New Mexico could very well finish 12-4 while everyone else goes 11-5. The Lobos have the easiest schedule remaining, though the Aztecs do have 3 of the last 4 at home.

To win the title outright, BYU has to win all its games. Period. I know it's statistically still possible if they don't, but you and I both know that's not going to happen. Next, Utah has to lose its next three games. There's no way they're beating BYU or UNM on the road, so it really comes down to the game at home tomorrow night against UNLV. If the Utes win, they're champs.

In sum: After these two games in the next two days, things will either be really clear or really exciting...Look out for New Mexico...If BYU loses tonight, at the best they'll be kissing their very ugly sister...Cheering for UNLV is okay from here on out...Wyoming does have two home games against these teams, but TCU is the team to watch to see if they totally gimp a championship hopeful.

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